How many people fought in the Battle of Hogwarts?

The Deathly Hallows Part II movie makes a big deal of how outnumbered the heroes are, with shots that show Voldemort surrounded by vast numbers of Death Eaters and hordes of Snatchers, quotes about numbers not winning a battle when the Order members see what they’re up against, and a distinct lack of the reinforcements that showed up near the end in the book. But how many people really fought in the Battle of Hogwarts?

Let’s start off by establishing how many wizards there are in Great Britain, since that puts an upper limit on the numbers for the battle. All the witches and wizards in Britain attend the same school, buy their wands from the same wand-maker, and frequent the same few places: Diagon Alley, Hogsmeade, Godric’s Hollow, etc. They have one major newspaper, one favorite sport, twenty-eight “pure-blood” families, and one court that handles cases ranging from petty crimes to felonies. There can’t be all that many of them.

There are 40 students in Harry’s year at Hogwarts. 40 students per year x 7 years = about 280 students at Hogwarts. However, J.K. Rowling has said before that about 1,000 students attend Hogwarts. Presumably, either not all of Harry’s classmates are mentioned in the books or the Original Forty list, or his group is unusually small. I prefer the latter assumption, because it would be hard to imagine 25 more Gryffindors in Harry’s year.

According to the 2011 census, 6.2% of Britain’s population was age 0-4, 5.6% was age 5-9, 5.8% was age 10-14, and 6.3% was age 15-19. This is a bit after Harry’s time and includes the years before and after students graduate from Hogwarts, but it’s close enough to use for a general estimate. If about 12% of witches and wizards in the UK attend Hogwarts, and about the same amount are too young to attend, then …

If there are 280 students at Hogwarts, there are about 2,300 wizards in the UK, 560 kids and 1,740 adults.

If there are 1,000 students at Hogwarts, there are about 8,300 wizards in the UK, 2,000 kids and 6,300 adults.

So there are likely somewhere between 2,000 and 6,000 adult wizards in the UK. Are you starting to see why images like this from the Deathly Hallows Part II movie bother me?

latest

Just how many followers did Voldemort have? I counted a hundred people just in the first few rows and then gave up. The vast horde of Death Eaters extends far beyond the edge of the image. There must be a thousand of them!

Here’s another picture demonstrating just how vast their army was:

btvnu

That’s not even counting the Snatchers.

snatchers

There are probably what, a hundred people in this picture? It gets hard to tell near the back, and like with the previous picture, the army doesn’t stop where the picture ends. These guys aren’t official Death Eaters, just lower-level followers who do a lot of the dirty work. Their costuming is different, they fight in different parts of the battle, and really, there should be many more of them than the Death Eaters, who are just Voldemort’s elite inner circle.

Meanwhile, here are the defenders of Hogwarts:

harry-potter-and-the-deathly-hallows-part-2-movie-photo-66d219f487-a588-4078-b61e-b65f0cce00ad-deathly-hallows-part-2-movie-stills-harry-potter-26814349-1280-853

All surviving members of the Order of the Phoneix, many of the Hogwarts teachers, and most of Dumbledore’s Army. The first two overlap a lot, so let’s just make a list. There are literally that few of them:

  • Adults: 5 Weasleys (Molly, Arthur, Bill, Fleur, Percy), Aberforth, Kingsley, Tonks, Lupin, McGonagall, Flitwick, Moody, Hagrid, Sprout, Trelawney
    • Possibly a few more, since it’s not clear whether minor Hogwarts teachers like Sinistra, Vector, Babbling, Hooch, etc. remained to fight or evacuated.
  • DA Alumni: Fred and George, Lee Jordan, Cho Chang, Angelina Johnson, Alicia Spinet, Katie Bell, Oliver Wood
  • Hogwarts Students: Harry, Ron, Hermione, Luna, Neville, Ginny, Dean, Seamus, Lavender, Parvati, Padma, Terry Boot, Michael Corner, Anthony Goldstein, Ernie Macmillan, Susan Bones, Hannah Abbot, Colin Creevey
    • Possibly more unnamed students, since “a number of older Ravenclaws … even more Hufflepuffs … and half of Gryffindor” chose to stay and fight. Those who were underage were told to leave, but it’s not clear exactly how many of the seventh-years stayed and how many of the younger students snuck back in to fight, as Colin did.
  • Near the end of the battle, reinforcements arrive, led by Charlie Weasley and Professor Slughorn. They include the centaur herd, the families of students who stayed to fight, villagers from Hogsmeade, and – according to J.K. Rowling later on – a group of Slytherin students.

So, about 40 or 50 people initially stayed to fight for Hogwarts, and maybe another 100 people came to help later. The movie is very realistic in the way it portrays the heroes’ forces – if anything, it makes them too small by not including the reinforcements.

Naturally, it looks impressive to have fifty intrepid heroes taking on an army of a thousand villains, but is it realistic?

No exact numbers are given for the number of Death Eaters, but we can assume they outnumber the heroes, since heroes tend to be portrayed as underdogs fighting a more powerful enemy.

In Goblet of Fire, a small group of Death Eaters arrives to witness Voldemort’s return in the graveyard. This group consists of those who survived the first war and did not go to prison. Only seven named characters are there, but it’s mentioned that he did not speak to them all. In Order of the Phoenix, fifteen Death Eaters escape from Azkaban, including the Lestranges. However, for the most part, it’s not clear which group the Death Eaters introduced in the last two books were part of, and some may have joined later. The only definite conclusion is that the number of people in his inner circle was at least in the mid 20’s, putting it at a similar size to the Order of the Phoenix.

Here’s a list of Death Eaters who are (or might be) still alive when the Battle of Hogwarts begins, as well as prominent supporters who were not in the official inner circle but were definitely at the battle: Bellatrix, Rhodolphus, and Rabastan Lestrange; Lucius, Narcissa, and Draco Malfoy; Severus Snape; Alecto and Amycus Carrow; Fenrir Greyback; Pius Thicknesse; Avery; Dolohov; Crabbe Sr; Goyle Sr; Yaxley; Jugson; MacNair; Mulciber; Nott Sr; Rookwood; Selwyn; Rowle; and Travers.

That’s 24 people, not a long list. Of course, the real numbers are likely higher. The list is just named characters. Mentions of things like a dozen Death Eaters guarding Hogsmeade indicate that Voldemort has grown his following again. Maybe there were as many as 40 or 50 Death Eaters, and they weren’t the only ones working for Voldemort. So let’s look at who else was:

Fenrir Greyback’s werewolves. Let’s assume that about 1% of wizards are werewolves, since it seems like a very rare condition. That would mean about 80 werewolves, and statistically ten of those should be Hogwarts students. As far as we know, Professor Lupin is the only werewolf at Hogwarts in Harry’s time, so even 1% is probably a high estimate. But let’s say there are 80 werewolves, and let’s say half of them are following Fenrir Greyback.

The Snatchers. The Snatchers were not at the Battle of Hogwarts in the books, but they were in the movies, so let’s include them. The Snatchers were bounty hunters who tracked down Voldemort’s enemies: muggle-born wizards, Order members, and so on. The two we know of are Greyback and Scabbior, and presumably some of the other werewolves were also involved. Ron describes them as being “everywhere”, so there have to be a lot of them. However, it’s unlikely they would all be at the Battle of Hogwarts. They were not part of Voldemort’s inner circle or even necessarily operating on his direct orders. They did not have the Dark Mark, so many might not even have known when Voldemort summoned his forces. But let’s say there were 100 Snatchers at the Battle of Hogwarts and Harry simply didn’t notice them in the book.

Ministry employees. Pius Thicknesse was at the battle, and I included him on my first list. I don’t think it’s likely that many others were, even those loyal to Voldemort. They had a government to run, after all, and it’s not as if Voldemort knew this was going to be the final battle.

Imperius victims. We’re told that Voldemort uses the Imperius curse to control people and force them to fight for him, but it’s unclear how many people are actually being controlled this way. The confirmed list of imperius cases is very short: Pius Thicknesse, Stan Shunpike, Viktor Krum in Goblet of Fire, Broderick Bode and Sturgis Podmore in Order of the Phoenix, and a muggle man in Half-Blood Prince. For the most part, it seems to have been a convenient excuse for people like the Malfoys after Voldemort’s first disappearance. However, let’s be generous and say Voldemort has twenty Imperius victims fighting for him at the Battle of Hogwarts.

Slytherin students. Now, this is where it gets tricky. In the movie, the Slytherins are locked in the dungeon, but in the book, they are evacuated to Hogsmeade along with all the underage students and those who chose not to fight. Voldemort tells Lucius Malfoy that Draco did not come to join them “like the rest of the Slytherins”, implying that all of them went straight to Voldemort and presumably fought for him. However, J.K. Rowling has since said that this is not the case, and that some Slytherins who were not loyal to Voldemort actually helped Professor Slughorn gather reinforcements to defend the school. Presumably others, especially the younger ones, simply went home. Voldemort was trying to scare Malfoy by questioning his son’s loyalty, so it’s not hard to believe he exaggerated.

Let’s say Pansy Parkinson and Theodore Nott went to Voldemort; Nott because his father is a Death Eater and Pansy because she made her position quite clear. Let’s also say Daphne Greengrass and Tracey Davis help Slughorn gather reinforcements; Daphne because, in Cursed Child, her sister and nephew are among the most unambiguously good Slytherin characters, and Tracey because she’s half-blood and has a normal-sounding name, which indicate she wasn’t raised with the kind of snobbery and prejudice that lead one to support Voldemort. Malfoy, Crabbe, and Goyle went to the Room of Requirement, which leaves Blaise Zabini and Millicent Bulstrode, both unpleasant but not directly linked to the Death Eaters, and one unnamed girl if the 5 students per gender per house per year thing is accurate. However, if there are 1,000 students at Hogwarts, there could be as many as 35 Slytherin seventh-years.

Let’s go with 10. Let’s say that two helped Slughorn, five went to Voldemort, and of course, three went to the Room of Requirement.  Now let’s say there are 20 sixth years. Four helped Slughorn, ten went to Voldemort, and six went home. Let’s say that most of the younger kids went home or didn’t fight, since there’s no mention of Voldemort sending 11-year-olds into battle. That would mean 15 Slytherins, about half of the older students, went directly to Voldemort and fought with the Death Eaters. These numbers are, like the ones for the Snatchers and werewolves, totally arbitrary but hopefully within a reasonable range.

50 Death Eaters + 40 werewolves + 100 Snatchers + 20 Imperius victims + 15 Slytherins = 225

Voldemort’s army should have had numbers in the low to mid 200’s, give or take a little. Maybe even round it up to 300 if you think there’s any category where I’ve estimated low, or down to 200 if you think my estimates are high. His forces would still outnumber the Order’s something like 4, 5, or even 6 to 1 until the reinforcements arrive, and as much as 2 to 1 after that, but it seems like a reasonable number. It’s not a number that makes me fear for the future of the Wizarding World. Because if this many people were Death Eaters …

latest

… (and, as we’ve already established, the Death Eaters were just the inner circle, not the majority of Voldemort’s supporters) … if about 1/6 of adult British wizards were Death Eaters and maybe twice that many supported or worked for Voldemort in some capacity, then how are we supposed to believe this world was rebuilt and all was well?

Advertisements

The Sorting of Queenie Goldstein

Crimes of Grindelwald spoilers.

Shortly after the first Fantastic Beasts movie, I said that if Queenie went to Hogwarts, she would be a Slytherin. Now that Crimes of Grindelwald is out, all I can say is …

Continue reading

Hogwarts Mystery: Ravenclaw’s Revenge

Okay, so up until this point I’ve been pretty happy with the Hogwarts Mystery game and the storyline it’s having me follow. But I’m early in year two now and starting to get really annoyed.

First of all, there’s this:

Screenshot_20180505-180507.png

We needed to get a quill from inside the Gryffindor common room to help find Ben (long story), so Rowan came up with this harebrained plan to get me in there, which involved using reducio and engorgio on myself to sneak in unnoticed while everyone was away at a Quidditch game. The thing is, there was no need to do any of that. It would have made so much more sense to simply hand the first clue over to McGonagall and let her take it from there. She’s his Head of House, she was looking for him, too, and she had already asked us to keep an eye out for anything that might be helpful. I don’t mind having my character break the rules on occasion, but this is just too silly and unnecessary.

But that’s not what’s really bothering me. No, it’s this:

Screenshot_20180506-091716.png

Are we, now? See, that’s news to me. I didn’t know I, or my character, or Ravenclaw in general, had any particular desire for revenge against Slytherin. In fact, I have yet to see a Ravenclaw character in any part of the Harry Potter world – books, movies, Pottermore, or whatever – spend any considerable amount of time or energy worrying about revenge.

I never got the feeling Ravenclaw as a whole was particularly antagonistic towards Slytherin, either. Their involvement in inter-house rivalries seems limited to Quidditch games and house points and supporting Cedric over Harry in Goblet of Fire. It’s Gryffindor and Slytherin that really hate each other. The Ravenclaw “welcome letter” on Pottermore both criticizes and compliments all three of the other houses. About Slytherin, it says, “They’re not all bad, but you’d do well to be on your guard until you know them well. They’ve got a long house tradition of doing whatever it takes to win”. That’s a far cry from this:

Screenshot_20180506-092017.png

In fact, this storyline doesn’t seem to fit no matter which house you’re in. Hufflepuffs are probably even less likely to care about revenge than Ravenclaws. Slytherins totally would plot revenge en masse, but they would come up with a better plan than simply using a spell to knock a random … um, Gryffindor, I’m assuming … backwards into a fountain. And I can totally see a Gryffindor doing exactly that if they saw a Slytherin being mean to someone, but they wouldn’t feel the need to have a meeting about it first. They’d just do it.

Screenshot_20180506-170515.png

Look, my character doesn’t even look happy about this. She doesn’t care about revenge. She doesn’t want to hear “Twenty points from Ravenclaw” when Snape inevitably catches us. And whatever words the game is putting in her mouth, she definitely doesn’t think this plan shows how smart we are in any way.

More Thoughts on Daphne Greengrass

A few minutes ago, I posted a poem from Daphne Greengrass’s point of view. Since she’s really kind of a blank slate of a character, I thought it was worth explaining a bit of my thought process.

Sometimes I like to imagine what a “good Slytherin” from Harry’s generation might have looked like. Not a Draco Malfoy type who turns out to be less evil than he’d like to be, but more of a Professor Slughorn: someone consciously choosing to “live within the light” despite their housemates’ decision to do the opposite. The problem is that all Harry’s Slytherin classmates are so unpleasant, and unlike the adult characters, they all seem to be unquestioningly pro-Voldemort. So when my mind drifts down that route, I have only a few very minor characters to choose from. My ideas usually center around Daphne and Astoria Greengrass.

The two sisters make only one appearance each in the actual Harry Potter books, but Astoria has a major off-screen role in Cursed Child as Scorpius Malfoy’s deceased mother, and is given most of the credit for what a decent person he’s grown up to be. Daphne is there in the background throughout the series as a member of Pansy Parkinson’s giggling gang of Slytherin girls. Neither of them plays any role in the conflict between Harry and Voldemort, so it’s hard to say what they would have thought or who they would have supported. At the very least, they weren’t actively working for Voldemort, and it’s not too much of a stretch to think they might have privately disagreed with their fellow Slytherins who were.

But, then again, what kind of conflict would that have led to with friends and classmates, relatives, future in-laws, etc. who were all either Death Eaters or at least in support of Voldemort? How could you be a decent, “live within the light” sort of person and be able to tolerate being constantly surrounded by evil? Hence, the poem I wrote.

You can read it here: https://hogwartspensieve.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/hate-a-poem-about-daphne-greengrass/

Hate: a Poem about Daphne Greengrass

Read my thought process here: https://hogwartspensieve.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/more-thoughts-on-daphne-greengrass/


Some people hate the Death Eaters
I don’t have that luxury
In this dimly-lit world of silver and green
My home for seven years
There are too many people
Who forgot somewhere along the way
About cunning and ambition
And let themselves become pawns
Easily sacrificed
That should not be the Slytherin way

Some people hate the Death Eaters
I don’t have that luxury
When my best friend whispers in my ear
That her life’s ambition
Is to serve a man I hate
And my little sister
Sighs and doodles hearts on her parchment
Yearning for a boy already lost
To the darkness

Some people hate the Death Eaters
I don’t have that luxury
They come over in the summer to have tea with my parents
And praise my high marks in school
And whisper offers to bring me into
Their inner circle
But I shake my head
I cannot hate these pawns of the Dark Lord
If I did, I would hate nearly everyone I know
And become a bitter shell of hatred
No better than them
But
I can hate what they stand for

Some people hate the Death Eaters
I don’t have that luxury
Even many years later
When I have left the dimly-lit common room behind
And the war has faded to memory
A fake coin that belonged to my husband rusting in a box on the dresser
Even now, every weekend
I go to my brother-in-law’s house for tea
We talk about the weather
About quidditch
About his son and my daughter
But we don’t mention her
His wife, my sister
Just a memory now, too – a memory we both loved
And where there was love, I cannot hate

Sorting Hat Saturday: “Mad Eye” Moody

Continuing the project I started last week of sorting adult Harry Potter characters whose houses are unknown, this week I’m looking at Alastor “Mad-Eye” Moody. He was definitely a difficult one, both because he’s so secretive and because he embodies traits of every single house. He’s brave, he’s loyal, he’s intelligent, and he’s cunning. But which house does he fit into best?

Not Hufflepuff. That’s my first thought. While it’s true that he’s hard-working, as well as being loyal to Dumbledore and the Order, he’s so distrustful and paranoid that it’s almost impossible to imagine him among the team players of Hufflepuff. Ravenclaw is also unlikely. While Moody has a brilliant mind and is – like many Ravenclaws – a bit eccentric, he doesn’t seem to value knowledge for its own sake. He’s far too practical for that.

Gryffindor might be the logical choice. And yet, I’m not sure that’s a good fit, either. Moody’s bravery is different from Harry’s or Lily’s or even Dumbledore’s. In Order of the Phoenix, the portrait of a former Hogwarts Headmaster tells Harry, “We Slytherins are brave, yes, but not foolish … Given the choice, we would always choose to save our own skins.” There’s not a lot of evidence of that, though, in the characters’ actions. Many of the Slytherin characters are just cowards, no bravery involved at all, but then you’ve got Regulus Black sacrificing his life for a chance to bring Voldemort down – not exactly saving his own skin. I suppose Snape would describe himself as “brave but not foolish”, but I think it might be an even better description of Moody. For an Order member and an Auror, bravery is pretty much in the job description. But he is not “foolish” – ie. reckless and self-sacrificing in the way Gryffindors tend to be. In fact, he’s kind of paranoid about his own survival. He drinks only from his own flask because he’s afraid of being poisoned, and he trusts nobody, not even his fellow Order members.

What about the other Slytherin traits? He can be ruthless at times, for example suggesting that the Ministry take Karkaroff’s information and then send him back to Azkaban. And he’s cunning, too: while it’s the fake Moody who claims, “It was once my job to think as Dark Wizards do”, the comment seems fairly accurate and is taken in stride by those who know the real Moody well. Having been in the same House as many dark wizards at Hogwarts would only have helped him there. He’s clever and strategic enough not only to lay a false trail as to when Harry will be moved from Privet Drive, but also to realize that they still need to be prepared for battle. Besides, there’s the fact that his house was undisclosed in his Ministry file. That’s definitely something a Slytherin would do; a Hogwarts House gives valuable insight that could easily be used against you, or provide an element of surprise when the enemy doesn’t know exactly what to expect.

Dumbledore seems to trust Moody a great deal. Would he really place that kind of trust in a Slytherin? I think so, under the right circumstances. If Moody was a Slytherin, and if he went to Hogwarts during Voldemort’s rise to power (which he must have), he clearly chose not to associate with his future Death Eater peers, perhaps even gravitating toward Dumbledore as a teacher and role model. Dumbledore did not hesitate to trust Snape, and I strongly suspect that Mundungus Fletcher was also a graduate of Slytherin, so there’s no reason other members of the Order could not be as well.

What if Helena Ravenclaw was Slytherin’s protégé?

Silly question, I know. She wouldn’t have even been in his house; she was a Ravenclaw, after all. But they have a lot in common. They both played a direct part in the founding of Hogwarts, Slytherin as one of the founders, Helena as a founder’s child and part of the first generation of students. They both grew apart from the other three founders and eventually fled the castle, never to return. They both did something or took something with them that left Hogwarts in a fractured state. And they both played an unknowing role in Voldemort’s rise to power, Slytherin as his ancestor and inspiration, Helena by telling him where to find Ravenclaw’s lost diadem.

Helena didn’t have the greatest relationship with her mother, so perhaps there was another teacher she saw as a role model instead – and there’s not much Gryffindor or Hufflepuff about her. Perhaps she looked up to Slytherin and wanted to be more like him; perhaps he even told her that if she weren’t Rowena’s daughter, he would have picked her for his own house. The lover who comes to find her when she runs away was a Slytherin, so perhaps she associated herself with Slytherin house in other ways as well.

Depending on the timing, her decision to steal the diadem and flee might even have been influenced by Slytherin’s own departure. She didn’t steal it out of longing for the wisdom it could bring, but rather, because she thought it would help her become greater than her mother. That’s pure ambition right there. If she witnessed Slytherin’s fight with Gryffindor and subsequent departure, if she knew what he had left lurking inside the school, if she saw the growing fracture between the houses and perhaps felt torn between her mother and her mentor, she might not have had much reason to want to stay.